AGP Executive Report

Regulatory Clash: Hydro-Quebec is in a Boston court fight with Eversource, National Grid and Unitil over a Maine power line outage that left Massachusetts short during a January cold snap, turning on whether a “force majeure” clause lets Hydro-Quebec withhold $40M. Grid & Infrastructure: Alberta’s AI data-centre boom is running into a natural gas bottleneck, with a leaked cabinet document reportedly weighing extraordinary steps to expand pipeline capacity. First Nations vs Oversight: Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakanak says Ottawa’s move to streamline federal reviews for some energy projects risks treaty and consultation rights. Capital for Transition: Sun Life announced a $5B Commitment to Canadian Infrastructure Initiative, including investments tied to energy and transportation. Energy Security in Focus: Canada and Ukraine deepened a drone-and-defence partnership in Calgary, with Carney and Zelenskyy highlighting sovereignty and energy cooperation. Markets Watch: Rising oil and inflation pressures are pushing bond yields higher in both the U.S. and Canada, raising borrowing-cost concerns.

Canada–Ukraine Defence & Energy: Prime Minister Mark Carney met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Calgary to deepen defence, security, economic and energy ties, with drones front and centre. Canada says it has about 2,000 drones today but will need “millions” as it modernizes, and it launched a national drone marketplace modelled on Ukraine’s Brave1 to connect CAF units with nearly 400 Canadian suppliers. The leaders also signed a 100-year partnership declaration and discussed winter energy security, including Canada’s plan to fund emergency natural gas purchases for Ukraine. Air Defence Package: Zelenskyy says Canada is ready to join Europe’s FREYJA anti-ballistic missile program and will provide C$350 million in air-defence interceptors, with additional defence deliveries discussed. Markets & Energy Prices: Oil’s move back above US$100 amid Middle East tensions is feeding inflation and rate-hike expectations, pressuring equities and bond markets. Uranium Watch: Paladin Energy shares slid about 9.5% as uranium stocks fell on capacity and funding jitters, even as spot uranium firmed near recent highs. Finance for Defence/Resilience: CIBC announced a $2 billion commitment to fund small and medium-sized defence-related and dual-use businesses, including energy and infrastructure.

Canada-Ukraine Defence & Energy: Prime Minister Mark Carney met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Calgary, pledging a “very important” air-defence package for Ukraine plus continued support for Ukraine’s energy system ahead of winter, as both leaders signed a declaration on a 100-year partnership covering drones, counter-drone/electronic warfare, ammunition, and energy and critical minerals cooperation. Oil Market Shock: Brent pushed above $100 a barrel as US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears tightened global supply, with Chinese independent refiners reportedly snapping up cargoes including from Canada to replace thinning Iranian and Russian barrels. Canada-US Trade Pressure: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne told Alberta business leaders Canada’s edge in global trade is “trust,” even as the broader tariff fight keeps heating up. Nuclear Momentum: Canadian Nuclear Laboratories is closing its Invitation for Clean Energy Projects and Canadian Nuclear Research Initiative to refocus as new nuclear projects ramp up, including microreactor work. Pipeline Watch (US): Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer renewed pressure on Enbridge over Line 5, calling the proposed tunnel a “ticking time bomb” and urging alternatives. Corporate/Capital Markets: Transat secured an additional $250M in federal aid as fuel costs squeeze results. Aluminium Supply Chain: Canadian Energy Metals says it hit proof-of-concept to produce smelter-grade alumina for North America’s first fully integrated aluminium project, and is starting a prefeasibility study for mining, refining and smelting pathways.

Oil & Markets: Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated, with Wall Street sliding alongside higher energy costs. Canada–U.S. Trade: Trump told supporters Canada “very much wants to make a deal” while the broader tariff fight continues to shape business sentiment. Energy Security & Climate Policy: A UN Environment Programme report says “just transition” is increasingly being turned into law and policy, urging a rights-based approach that protects workers and communities as emissions cuts accelerate. Carbon Capture in Alberta: Enhance Energy broke ground on its Origins carbon capture and storage hub near Clive, targeting 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 annually and linking into Alberta’s existing CO2 transportation system. Ukraine–Canada Energy Cooperation: Zelenskyy arrived in Canada for meetings with Prime Minister Mark Carney, with energy cooperation and winter readiness on the agenda. Nuclear/Power Tech: Critical Resources reported its solid-state battery pouch cell held capacity through more than a month of cycling in a full-format lab test. Pipeline Permitting (U.S., Line 5): Michigan’s Whitmer said the state must consider a Supreme Court decision’s impact on Line 5 tunnel permits and push Enbridge to pursue alternatives sooner. Corporate/Investing: Valeura won TSX30 2026 recognition and an EIA monitoring award in Thailand.

Oil Prices & Inflation: Brent pushed above US$100 a barrel again as US-Iran tensions and renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz stoked supply fears, dragging markets and reviving inflation worries. Canada Pump Watch: Canadian gas prices edged higher with analysts warning pump prices could climb further as crude stays pinned near triple digits. Line 5 Pipeline Fight: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer renewed pressure on Enbridge to shut Line 5, arguing a Supreme Court ruling means regulators must scrutinize the proposed tunnel more closely and compare alternatives. Clean Fuel Policy: The IRS issued 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit guidance, including carbon accounting pathways for dairy and swine manure and other organic feedstocks—giving biogas producers more certainty. Trade Shock for Energy-Adjacent Sectors: Trump’s new import bans on Canadian products (including alcohol and dairy byproducts) add to the US-Canada tariff spiral, with energy costs and trade uncertainty continuing to rattle business planning. Power & Gas Security (IEA): An IEA report highlights how underground gas storage and flexibility mechanisms can strengthen gas supply security—pointing to Ukraine’s large but underused storage system.

Canada–U.S. trade war hits energy-adjacent sectors: The U.S. says it will ban Canadian dairy, most alcohol and some motorcycles starting Sept. 29, and it’s also moving to exclude Canadian-origin goods from big U.S. government contracts worth about US$50B—after Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs took effect on roughly $20B of U.S. imports. Oil price pressure from Middle East risk: Brent is hovering just under $100 as the U.S. destroys five Iranian oil tankers and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep traders on edge, feeding inflation worries that could steer central-bank policy. B.C. royalty transparency fight: B.C. changed its law to keep company-specific fossil fuel royalty payments secret, drawing criticism as drilling ramps up in the Peace River region. Enbridge leadership change: Enbridge says CEO Greg Ebel will retire at year-end, with Michele Harradence named successor. Uranium exploration boost: IsoEnergy, after buying Toro Energy, reported strong drilling results at its Larocque East project in Canada’s Athabasca Basin. Offshore wind momentum in Nova Scotia: A poll finds broad support for the Wind West offshore wind plan, with questions still to be answered.

Canada-U.S. Trade War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. imports (15% to 50%) kicked in at 12:01 a.m., targeting sectors like steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics—raising costs risk for cross-border supply chains tied to energy and mining. Energy Prices & Geopolitics: Oil is edging back toward $100 as Middle East attacks tighten supply expectations, pushing U.S. gas prices higher; meanwhile Europe is bracing for another hit as Iran-war-linked LNG disruptions lift European gas prices and drain storage heading into winter. Oilpatch Corporate Moves: Enbridge says CEO Greg Ebel will retire at year-end and names Michele Harradence as successor, as the company continues major gas utility integration. Natural Gas & Local Opposition: Elsipogtog First Nation in New Brunswick is demanding a stop to construction of a controversial NB Power gas plant, citing impacts to moose habitat and traplines. Infrastructure & Exports: The Port of Thunder Bay is exploring more intermodal and inbound cargo options to balance trade as downstream investments and transport capacity expand.

Canada-U.S. Tariff War: Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods took effect Tuesday (15%, 25% and 50% rates), hitting items like steel, dairy, appliances, cosmetics and farm equipment, as the broader trade fight with President Trump escalates. Middle East Oil Shock: Oil stayed near $100 as Iran said it’s close to an Oman deal for Strait of Hormuz shipping, even after U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and renewed U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat attacks raised disruption fears. Falklands Legal Fight: Argentina filed a criminal complaint targeting companies including Canada’s JHI Associates over alleged unauthorized Falklands-area drilling, escalating sovereignty and resource-control tensions. Energy Transition Markets: New market reports project biodiesel growth to $101.35B by 2035 on mandates and refinery conversions, while cryogenic equipment demand is forecast to nearly double by 2035 amid LNG and hydrogen buildouts. Climate & Water Stress: BC salmon are showing signs of drought-linked harm, with the Salmon River’s warming and irrigation pressures raising concerns for chinook survival. Renewables & Grid: BC Hydro and FortisBC are promoting expanded free home energy upgrades, as the home battery debate continues over repair and sizing tradeoffs.

Canada–U.S. Tariff Fight: Labour Day diplomacy is split: U.S. President Donald Trump used the holiday to attack Democrats while Canada’s PM Mark Carney focused on the tariff dispute, with new Canadian counter-tariffs on hundreds of U.S. products set to land Tuesday, raising pressure on cross-border supply chains and energy-linked industries. Power Storage in Ontario: AECOM says it’s doing front-end engineering and design work for TC Energy’s proposed 1,000MW Meaford pumped-storage project, targeting long-duration storage of about 10,600MWh and aiming for operation around 2035. Solar Battery Safety in P.E.I.: A battery fire at Summerside’s Sunbank Solar/Battery Farm triggered a shelter-in-place order for nearby residents; the city says the fire was contained but crews stayed on scene as the cause remains unknown. Climate & Health Economics: A UN report argues integrated climate and clean-air action can deliver large economic and health gains, reinforcing the policy case for cleaner energy and pollution cuts. Renewables Risk Watch: The P.E.I. incident adds to scrutiny of battery storage safety as Canada expands solar and storage capacity.

Uranium Exploration: Infini Resources has kicked off a 5,000-metre diamond drilling push at its Portland Creek uranium project in Newfoundland, including the first test of a demagnetised granite target after soil sampling hit 7.5% uranium oxide. Oil & Pipeline Politics: Victoria city council has formally joined opposition to the proposed West Coast oil pipeline that would move Alberta crude to B.C., arguing environmental risks outweigh economic benefits. Energy Security & LNG: A new report warns Europe can’t ignore the LNG crisis, as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keep tightening supply and raising costs. Critical Minerals Watch: Malawi’s rare earth and critical minerals boom could reshape its economy, but experts warn of the familiar risk of exporting raw value without strong local processing. Geopolitics & Deterrence: Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro says China may try to exploit cuts to U.S.-South Korea exercises, while insisting U.S. commitments to Manila remain unchanged. Policy & Power Demand: Canada’s data-centre buildout is drawing fresh federal expectations on responsible development as communities and governments push back on energy and land impacts.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: Trump escalated his dispute with Canada, calling the Canadian dollar “unacceptable” and threatening further action as both sides trade steep tariffs that hit autos, steel, aluminum and dairy. Middle East Oil Shock: Iran and the U.S. traded fresh accusations and strikes tied to shipping and warships, keeping a geopolitical premium on crude and adding to already-stressed fuel markets. Ontario Pumped Storage Protest: A Georgian Bay group staged a waterborne protest against TC Energy’s proposed Ontario Pumped Storage project, arguing local concerns aren’t being heard. Critical Minerals Push: Saskatchewan’s McIlvenna Bay copper-zinc mine has started producing concentrate and is moving toward commercial output later in 2026, supported by new power infrastructure and federal funding. Nuclear Development (U.S. spillover): The U.S. DOE’s latest Nuclear Energy Launch Pad round selected 12 companies across 13 projects, underscoring continued momentum in small-scale nuclear—relevant for Canada’s own clean-power ambitions. Market Mood: Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% while warning tariffs and oil could force policy changes.

Pipeline Politics: Victoria city council voted to oppose Alberta-to-B.C. West Coast Oil Pipeline plans and asked Mayor Marianne Alto to file a submission against either building the 1,250-kilometre line or declaring it a national-interest project under the Building Canada Act. Trade & Critical Minerals: Canada is pushing back on U.S. moves by saying it won’t treat critical minerals as an asset to share, with Energy Minister Tim Hodgson framing the response as “I don’t get mad, I get even,” tied to the North Coast Transmission Line that would power new mines. Market Sentiment: A Nanos Research poll for CTV found most Canadians back dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs against the U.S. and strongly support rejecting a trade deal. Mining Finance: Natural Resources Canada data show capital spending in Canada’s minerals sector fell in 2025 and is only modestly recovering for 2026, with lenders demanding stronger schedules, permits, and cost realism. Global Energy Risk: Argentina says it will investigate and sanction firms working on hydrocarbons near the Falkland Islands without authorization, raising uncertainty for Canadian-linked activity.

Energy Security & Shipping: The U.S. says it destroyed three Iranian oil tankers after missile attacks targeted U.S. Navy warships near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating fears for global crude flows. Nuclear Momentum: A U.S. report highlights four privately developed test reactors reaching criticality this summer, as data-centre demand keeps pushing nuclear interest. Canada–U.S. Trade Pressure: Commentary and reporting keep circling Ottawa’s counter-tariffs and the broader “taxation war” framing, with knock-on concerns for Canadian living costs and energy-linked supply chains. Canadian Energy Policy Watch: Multiple items track Ottawa extending federal fuel excise tax relief into 2027 and ongoing market jitters around diesel and oil prices. Agriculture & Energy Link: Farmers’ groups warn that uncertainty in trade and input costs is rising, while speakers stress energy security as part of food sovereignty. Power Sector/Infrastructure: Coverage also points to rail and domestic manufacturing moves tied to trade tensions, with implications for energy demand and logistics.

Canada-U.S. Trade: Ottawa says there are no plans to restart talks over the Labour Day weekend as retaliatory tariffs kick in Sept. 8, after Trump’s 50% levies on $28B of Canadian imports—setting up a fresh round of cross-border tariff escalation. Energy Security & Shipping: The EU is weighing how to handle Arctic drilling and mining as cooperation in the High North “fractures,” with security concerns rising as NATO expands. Middle East Energy Risk: Trump dismissed talk of renaming the Strait of Hormuz, but the waterway remains central to global oil flows amid renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and attacks on commercial shipping. Critical Minerals & Transition Supply: A new EU push on critical minerals supply chains highlights ongoing energy-transition gaps—and Canada is repeatedly cited as part of the solution. Corporate Energy Update: Norway’s Aker Solutions names a new CEO, while Glencore marks progress at its all-electric Sudbury copper mine, underscoring Canada’s push to cut emissions in heavy industry.

Labour Market Watch: Statistics Canada says Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August and B.C. shed 5,500, with B.C.’s full-time employment down 26,000 and unemployment up to 6.5%—a sign trade shocks are biting. Nuclear Supply Chain: Bruce Power will host an OCNI summit to connect nuclear suppliers with procurement leaders, aiming to strengthen made-in-Canada energy resilience. Fuel Cost Relief: Ottawa extended the federal fuel excise tax suspension through Jan. 31, 2027, cutting gasoline by 10 cents/litre and diesel by 4 cents/litre, even as counter-tariffs loom. Business Support for Tariff Fallout: Ottawa announced $11.6M for eight Saskatoon businesses under the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, targeting jobs, productivity and new markets. Community & Cancer Care: Bruce Power and supplier partners donated $20,000 to Childcan for families affected by childhood cancer. Wildfire Readiness: PM Mark Carney says Ontario is getting more early warning and detection funding as the province faces its worst wildfire season on record. Energy Infrastructure: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe heads to the U.K. World Nuclear Symposium to push nuclear trade and investment ties.

North Coast Transmission Line Fight: B.C. Hydro’s North Coast Transmission Line plan would remove 12.4 hectares of protected Swan Creek area near Terrace, raising alarms about old-growth, moose habitat, wetlands and species-at-risk impacts. Renewables Backlash: Alberta’s UCP adds a $14-per-solar-panel “recycling fee” and bans panels from landfills starting Oct. 1, with renewables groups calling it a punitive tax. Climate Resilience: A new federal report says Canada must prepare for a 5°C hotter future, with more severe wildfire seasons, heat days, sea-level rise, permafrost thaw and glacier loss. Fuel Tax Relief Reality Check: Regina drivers say the extended federal fuel excise tax pause (10 cents/litre) isn’t enough as gas and especially diesel prices stay high. Trade Pressure on Energy Exports: Canada’s July trade surplus shrank to $769M as energy and metal exports fell while imports rose, ahead of new U.S. 50% tariffs. Nuclear Tech Update: ABB is modernizing control and safety systems at Romania’s Cernavodă Unit 1 as refurbishment targets another 30-year run.